Strategic Market AnalysisWin Rate vs. Reward:Risk Simulator
Most traders chase a high win rate. The money is in the combination. Move the two sliders and watch 100 trades play out — and see why a strategy that loses more often than it wins can still make money.
Presets are examples to explore, not anyone's actual results.
Makes money over time: about +0.22R per trade, or +22.5R over 100 trades.
| Win rate ↓ · R:R → | 0.5R | 1R | 1.5R | 2R | 2.5R | 3R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30% | −0.55R | −0.40R | −0.25R | −0.10R | +0.05R | +0.20R |
| 40% | −0.40R | −0.20R | +0.00R | +0.20R | +0.40R | +0.60R |
| 50% | −0.25R | 0.00R | +0.25R | +0.50R | +0.75R | +1.00R |
| 60% | −0.10R | +0.20R | +0.50R | +0.80R | +1.10R | +1.40R |
| 70% | +0.05R | +0.40R | +0.75R | +1.10R | +1.45R | +1.80R |
Click any box to load it. Green makes money over time, red loses, gray breaks even.
Why Our Scenarios Say "2.5R"
R is the risk
1R is what you lose if the stop is hit. A 2.5R trade aims to make two and a half times that. Our week-of-10/5 Scenario 1: entry 31,300, stop 31,140 (160 points), target 31,700 (400 points) — 400 ÷ 160 = 2.5R.
Fewer wins needed
At 2.5R the break-even win rate is 1 ÷ 3.5 = 28.6%. Win a bit more than 2 trades in 7 and the math is on your side. At 1R you'd need to win more than half the time.
Streaks still happen
Reshuffle a few times: even a winning combination strings losses together. That's why size is set before the trade — so a losing streak is survivable.
Size every trade with the Position Size Calculator, and use the free Trade Plan Checklist to confirm 2:1 or better before you enter.
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