BC Weekly Market Outlook — Week of 10/26/26 | /NQ
This week's plan in under a minute
The bias, the key levels, both trade scenarios and the week ahead — then read the full breakdown below.
▶ Tap to play · Sound may be neededNASDAQ futures (/NQ, Dec 26) finished Friday's session at 29,175.00, up 33.00 (+0.11%) on the day and down 216.25 (−0.74%) for the week, the Nasdaq's second weekly loss in a row. The week turned on Thursday. After Wednesday's earnings, worries about AI spending hit tech hard: Meta fell about 7% after raising the low end of its spending forecast and announcing new non-voting shares to fund AI, Tesla reported a 43% drop in profit and cut its spending plans, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 2.6% in a single session. /NQ broke through the 29,226 floor that had held all week and reached 28,987 on Friday, right on the August–September lows. Two things eased the pressure: the 10-year Treasury yield fell back below 5%, and bets on a Fed rate hike next week dropped to about 5%. Oil went the other way, with Brent hitting a six-month high near $117 on Middle East tensions.
Last Week's Recap: Scenario 1 (breakdown below 29,250) triggered on Thursday: the selloff produced a 4-hour close below 29,250 and the short filled at 29,230. The 29,520 stop was never threatened — Friday's bounce stopped near 29,330 — and the trade finished the week open, 55 points in profit at the 29,175 close. Target 1 (28,940) hasn't been reached yet; Friday's low was 28,987, 47 points short. The trade carries into this week with its original levels. Scenario 2 (pullback short at 29,680) filled Sunday night. Tuesday's low of 29,391 came within 41 points of Target 1, but buyers then pushed through the 30,010 stop on Wednesday, for a loss of 330 points (−1R). Both trades did what the plan said: the loser was capped at 1R, and the bearish read below 30,237 was right.
Structure: The downtrend is intact. /NQ keeps making lower highs — 31,616.50 on 10/6, 31,289.25 on 10/12, 30,237 on 10/16 and 30,110 this Wednesday — and Thursday finally broke the 29,226–29,269 floor that buyers had defended twice. That old floor is now resistance: Friday's bounce stalled near 29,330. Above it, 29,560–29,630 is the shelf where Thursday's breakdown started. Below, price is sitting on the most important support on the chart: 28,940–29,050, the floor of the August–September range (the 8/26, 9/2 and mid-September lows). The whole September–October rally from this area to 31,616 has now been given back. If this floor breaks, there is little support until the early-August lows near 28,300, then the 8/3 low near 28,080.
Bias: Bearish below 29,630. Sellers control the trend, but price is sitting on two-month support right before a Fed decision, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and PCE inflation, so we don't sell into the floor. We either wait for a 4-hour close below 28,940 to confirm the breakdown, or sell a bounce into the broken 29,226–29,330 floor with the risk set above it.
Breakdown continuation
Pullback short
Scaling out at Target 1 needs at least 2 /MNQ contracts. With a single contract, pick one target before you enter. Still in last week's Scenario 1 short from 29,230? It keeps its original levels: Target 1 28,940, Target 2 28,500, stop 29,520.
The Week Ahead: The biggest week of the quarter. Monday brings the Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 8:30 a.m. ET (5:30 a.m. PT) and the Dallas Fed survey at 10:30 a.m. ET (7:30 a.m. PT). Tuesday has Durable Goods Orders at 8:30 a.m. ET (5:30 a.m. PT) and Consumer Confidence at 10:00 a.m. ET (7:00 a.m. PT), with Boeing, Coca-Cola and UPS before the open and Visa after the close. Wednesday is the big one: the Fed's rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET (11:00 a.m. PT), followed by Powell's press conference — markets expect no change — then Microsoft and Alphabet after the close. Thursday packs September PCE inflation, the first estimate of third-quarter GDP and Jobless Claims into 8:30 a.m. ET (5:30 a.m. PT), with Amazon and Intel after the close. Friday closes with the Employment Cost Index at 8:30 a.m. ET (5:30 a.m. PT) and the Chicago PMI at 9:45 a.m. ET (6:45 a.m. PT). Apple reports the following Monday, November 2.
Invalidation: A 4-hour close above 29,630 takes price back above the breakdown shelf and shifts the bias to neutral. If that happens, both short scenarios are cancelled.
